【澎湃新闻】提高生育意愿,降低生育养育教育成本的四条基本路径

2020年11月,《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和二〇三五年远景目标的建议》首次提出“增强生育政策包容性”,强调要发展普惠托育服务体系,降低生育、养育、教育成本,促进人口长期均衡发展。


时隔不到一年,2021年5月31日,中共中央政治局审议《关于优化生育政策促进人口长期均衡发展的决定》,指出要进一步优化生育政策,实施一对夫妻可生育三个子女政策及配套支持措施,再次强调促进生育政策和相关经济社会政策配套衔接,将生育、养育、教育一体考虑,提高优生优育服务水平,降低家庭教育开支。


2017年国家卫健委组织的“全国生育状况抽样调查”显示,20-39岁已生育一孩的妇女不想生育二孩的排前位原因是“经济负担重”和“没人带孩子”。2019年国家卫健委组织的“全国人口与家庭动态监测调查”数据表明,0~3岁孩子母亲“最想获得的育儿支持或福利”排在前两位的分别是“有便捷的托儿所/托育服务”和“发放托育津贴”。我们看到,在育儿成本持续升高、家庭经济压力不断增大的背景下,降低生育养育教育成本已成为优化生育政策、建立友好型生育环境的重要内容。

一、家庭生育的高成本是影响生育意愿的重要因素

众所周知,在低生育率背景下,无论是发达国家还是发展中国家,在提升生育率方面都困难重重。一个重要原因在于生育率的变化多是外生因素所导致。这些外生因素是多重的,既包括政治、文化因素,也包括经济因素;其关系也是复杂的,仅就生育和经济关系而言,有生育率变动的宏观经济分析,主要研究经济增长、经济周期、经济发展、经济长波和生育率的关系;也有生育率变动的微观经济分析,主要从家庭人口经济学的角度开展生育率研究,如孩子生产的成本-收益分析、边际孩子合理选择理论、孩子数量-质量替代理论等。降低生育养育教育成本就是从微观成本-收益视角来分析的,这里讨论的成本,多是直接成本。


目前,生一个孩子的直接成本从几千到上万元不等。如果是高危育龄人群,生育成本会大大提升。特别是对于“生育力不足”人群,如果采用辅助生殖技术,往往花费更高。以试管婴儿为例,医疗费用涵盖夫妻双方身体检查费、促排卵药物费、取卵手术费、实验室胚胎培养费、验孕费以及剩余胚胎冷冻费等。我国常规试管婴儿一个周期大约需3-4万元,如果需要反复多次治疗,费用更多。


养育成本上,目前存在的突出问题是公共普惠性托育服务缺乏,而市场化托育成本远高于其他年龄段教育成本,大约是学前教育的2倍,是小学和初中的1.5倍。导致人们对托育机构望而却步。2016年中国人口与发展研究中心的一项针对城市家庭托育服务需求的调查发现,城市3岁以下婴幼儿在各类托育机构接受正式照顾的入托率仅为4.1%,远低于欧盟一些发达国家25-50%的入托率。


随着社会的发展,人们越来越重视孩子的质量,为了不让孩子输在“起跑线”上,教育支出成为家庭的巨大负担。家庭教育成本中的校外费用体现在父母为孩子报名各式各样的补习班、兴趣班等,校内费用包括购买学区房、支付择校费等。据中国教育追踪调查( CEPS)数据,2014年全国课外辅导班的家庭支出均值已达 2268 元/年。


对育龄人群来讲,尤其是流动的育龄人口,高房价也是他们少生育或不生育的重要因素。一项基于2014年中国家庭追踪调查数据分析显示,房价上涨对生育决策有更大的挤出效应,房价每上涨1000元,生育一孩的概率降低1.8-2.9%,生育二孩的概率降低2.4-8.8%。初次生育年龄上,房价每上涨1000 元,初次生育年龄提高0.14-0.26年。

二、降低生育养育教育成本的基本路径

(一)减轻生育能力不足群体负担,将辅助生殖治疗费用纳入医保范畴。


如前所述,相对于一般正常的育龄夫妇,采取辅助技术生育的夫妇经济负担更重。政府应将辅助生殖检查、治疗相关费用按比例纳入医保范畴,解决他们一部分家庭生育负担。另外,也可加快探索建立孕育保险制度,将低收入不孕不育患者群体纳入社会保障,有效保障每个个体生育权。


(二)增加保障性住房供给,减轻流动人口住房负担。


第七次人口普查显示,我国人户分离人口接近5亿人,市辖区内人户分离人口为1.17亿人,流动人口为3.76亿人。这些人口多处在育龄阶段,但高房价压力影响他们家庭生育意愿。在坚持房住不炒原则下,政府应在人口流入集中的大城市,增加保障性租赁住房和共有产权住房供给,规范发展长租房市场,降低租赁住房税费负担,切实帮助流动人口缓解住房压力。


(三)推进托育体系和幼儿园发展,规范校外辅导培训机构。


政府和社会力量可依托社区,向居民提供全日托、半日托、计时托、临时托等多样化的婴幼儿照护服务,满足不同家庭对婴幼儿托育服务的需求。在此基础上,逐步将托育和学前教育纳入义务教育,通过税收补贴、育儿补贴、假期补贴等多种福利举措增加婴幼儿托育服务供给。同时,政府应对校外各种辅导培训机构实行规范化管理,对收费、教育质量开展监督。


(四)实现税收制度与生育政策配套,实行激励生育的税收政策。


国家可通过税收这个“有形之手”,承担部分养育成本。建立个人或家庭为课税单位的选择性模式;将子女教育专项附加扣除的定额计算方式转变为实际费用扣除方式,依据子女数量构建差异化的个人所得税扣除额。可依据子女数量构建“阶梯式”的房产税免税面积计算方式。进一步降低家庭生活用品的增值税税率,将育儿用品纳入增值税免税范围等。

重新开始的困难之处

大学三年都用来玩电脑睡懒觉的人,大四时决定好好念书。打开书本,他面对的不仅仅是这三年懈怠遗留下来的落后,更有对这三年浪费时间的悔恨和自责。不管他自我改造的意愿有多么值得嘉奖,他需要面对的一个事实就是,他必须用旷日持久的努力将前面的空缺补上,才能有新的建树,而且这建树会比周围早就在按部就班努力的人来得晚,来得艰难,甚至来不及。他必须在很长一段时期里放弃自己过往的成就感来源(暴饮暴食,电脑游戏,和失败者抱团的无用社交等)来适应新的模式,并且长期得不到新模式给予的回报。而这种对长期决策的执行力和忍耐力,往往又是惯于追求短期回报的人所不擅长的。

Amazing Grace

I once was lost but now I’m found,

was blind but now I see.

昔我迷失 今被寻回

曾经盲目 重又得见

There is a Youtube link in this post. If you can’t see it, please check your internet connection.

万事屋ブルース

背筋のばし生きていく 
口で言うのは簡単 
だが現実は厳しい 
いきがって背伸びしても 
世界はそれを叩きのめす
プライド振りかざし吠えたところで 
お前なんて誰も見てない 
窮屈なこの世界 
お前は魂を売った

跪き、楽しくもないのに笑みをうかべて、
お前はそのたび何かを殺す
すり減って傷ついて、
それでもお前は生きていくさ
ずっとそこにあるもの そう思ってた  
たがそれは間違い 
終焉の足音が近づいて 
慌てて取り繕ってみせる
正しいこと訴えたとこで 
誰も話なんて聞いてない 

滅び行くこの世界 
俺は魂を売った
諦めて、絶望し、冷めた笑みを浮かべて 
俺はその度に何かを殺す 
俺たちには時間が無い… 
それでも時は進んでいくさ

ブラインド、目を開けて
ブラインド、前を見るんだ 
そう、眩しくても 
そして
ファインディング、いつの日か FINDING

In Memory of the Graduation Ceremony of UCLA 2021′.

Stay hungry. Stay foolish.

Smile. 明日へ。

[2021]Promare プロメア 剧本是这个时代最稀缺的资源

前两天和同学一同去看了这部扳机社(TRIGGER)的大作。虽然2019年在台湾的时候就有机会观看,不过那个时候还是选择了看《返校》——毕竟扳机社的作品还有六成几率被引进,《返校》这种作品引进的可能性肯定是为0%的。回到正题,简单评价一下这部作品:画面音乐的杰作,马失前蹄于一个经不起推敲的剧本。扳机社在2013年的Kill La Kill中充满想象力和动作表现的作画已经赢得了无数好评,资金更为充裕的剧场版动画自然是不落下风。与2010年之后新海诚的写实画风不同,扳机社的画面更多是明亮色块的风格,更贴近于2000年代的画风,当然现代的作画比那个时候精细多了。泽野弘之负责的音乐也是一大亮点,特别推荐《Inferno》和《覚醒》两首。可是,剧本上的缺陷却是看完之后给我印象最深刻的一点:我能理解鼓励展现真我,自由追寻个人价值的价值观,可是作品展现这个价值观的过程却难以让人信服,甚至到了不甚理智的过程。这个剧本其实更适合儿童向,亦或是JUMP作品——友情,努力,胜利的三大原则贯彻的确实是很好。

今石洋之,作为新人导演和资深动画从业者,这部作品算是一个不错的开始了。好的剧本需要磨砺,更需要运气,毕竟如果没有《言叶之庭》,《你的名字》估计也无法面世吧。对于《Promare》本身,只能用四个字来形容了:未来可期。

3.5/5

Cosmology of World in Buddhism: Samsara

The core idea of Buddhism cosmology is rebirth. Since rebirth is the unavoidable fate of all creatures, people want to find a way to save them from suffering, and Buddhism is the solution they found. Buddhist theories have a very clear statement about the attribution of all creatures, and what is the final solution for ending this cycle, samsara. The relationship between samsara, karma and nirvana was built in these theories. Karma, as a key factor, determines which layer of the world you will enter for samsara, like Gethin said in his book: 

“What determines in which realm a being is born? The short answer is karma…In fact Buddhist cosmology is at once a map of different realms of existence and a description of all possible experiences.” (Gethin 1998).

 Also, he claimed a way called nirvana to escape from samsara: “ … Buddhist practice that aims directly at the attainment of nirvana (Pali nibbana ) and release from the cycle of birth, death, and rebirth that is samsara.” (Gethin 1998). Generally speaking, Buddhists’ cosmology included the description of the world for samsara, the criteria of allocating creatures called karma, and the final solution for ending samsara named nirvana. People have a very strong motivation to practice Buddhism because of the cosmology and make Buddhism a successful religion in wide areas across Asia.

       Firstly, samsara is the root of  all suffering, and the suffering is partly caused by the process or rebirth in the heavens and hells. However, they are existing as a part of nature instead of a creature of Budda. In Buddhism, there are thirty-one realms with detailed explanations, but this paper will only talk about the lower eleven one since they are accessible for all people. The Buddha firstly constructed the structure of the world for us, as Gethin says: 

“ There is the world of the five senses (kama-dhatu, -loka ), which comprises eleven realms ranging from the realms of hell and ‘the hungry ghosts’, through the realms of animals, jealous gods, and human beings, to the six realms of the lower gods; the common characteristic of beings in all these realms is that they are all endowed with consciousness and five physical senses” (Gethin 1998).  

When these realms are depicted by the Buddha, he showed us what he saw and what it was like.  He has several interesting statements about it: “Buddha is said to have declared that samsara’s beginning was inconceivable and that its starting point could not be indicated…We have, it seems, been wandering in samsara for aeons.” (Gethin 1998).   He cannot determine the start point, but he can let you know what is happening under his observation. That is from his “awakening”, which means he can clearly see the true nature of world. The cosmology of Buddha is formed by his observation, and with its complicated and various description about world , it built a very persuasive and self-consistent world view for its believers. For lower levels of universe, there are also descriptions of the world: “At the center of a cakar-vada is the great world mountain, Meru of Sineru. This is surrounded by mountains and seas…”(Gethin 1998). Those vivid introductions give us a background of Buddha’s world view, and then when the Buddha talks about hells and heavens, the cruel description will frighten a lot of people. As he says: “In the hell, there are uncountable ways to torture a guilty person for almost infinity.” (Bodiford 2019.10.14). Gethin also mentioned: “…dominated by hatred one enters one of the hell realms where one suffers terrible pain;” …”(Gethin 1998) With those images and descriptions, the frightful hell and the desirable heaven are proposed, so what can be done to make us to be reborn in a better place?

       Secondly, Karma is the key factor determines your destiny after your death. Gethin answers this question with a precise definition:

“In general, though with some qualification, rebirth in the lower realms is considered to be the result of relatively unwholesome (akusala/akusala ), or bad. (papa ) karma, while rebirth in the higher realms the result of relatively wholesome (kusala/kusala ), or good (punya/puñña ) karma.” (Gethin 1998). 

With the desire of entering the high level, people try to do good things to increase their karma, and the moral status of people’s behaviors in their lives is exactly the grader of our rebirth: 

“…dominated by greed one becomes a hungry ghost, a class of beings ever discontent and anguished because of being unable to satisfy their greed; dominated by hatred one enters one of the hell realms where one suffers terrible pain; dominated by ignorance one becomes an animal ruled by the instincts of food and reproduction.” (Gethin 1998)

Karma is very specific, and it provides people a guideline for what they should do and what they shouldn’t do. These rules are very close to our natural moral value and the religious disciplines of Buddhism. The fear of heavens and hells gives people a reason to do everything Buddha teaches to make themselves a better future. Professor Bodiford also mentioned the joy in the heaven: “ The gods living in heaven only feels good feelings, eat tasty food, and do happy things. There is nothing bad in their life, and their happiness of living in the heaven cannot be imagined by human.” (Bodiford 2019.10.14). With all these things, Buddhism provides people the first way to reduce suffering: accumulating Karma. However, this is not the final solution since there is still a question: how to get out from samsara?

       Finally, practicing Buddhism and achieving nirvana is the only way to get out of the cycle. Even though human can enter higher levels, they are still wandering in the cycle. Even the highest resident god will die: 

“They will live for a long, happy life. It is long enough to make they feel that they are immortal. One day, they woke up, and they smell themselves stink. At this time, their death is not far, and the process of this is so painful and suffering, making them feel the pain they never experienced in their life.” (Bodiford 2019.10.14).

After all, when people are still in the samsara, they are still suffering. All human beings can’t escape this merely by doing good, since the highest realm is not nirvana: “One should note, however, that this hierarchy does not constitute a simple ladder which one, as it were, climbs, passing out at the top into nirvana.” (Gethin 1998). Actually, practicing Buddhism is the only way to escape from this, like Buddha did a long time ago. Like the definition given by Gethin: “The cessation of craving is, then, the goal of the Buddhist path, and equivalent to the cessation of suffering, the highest happiness, nirvana.” (Gethin 1998). He also claimed that everyone can attain nirvana: “In fact, nirvana may be obtained from any of the realms from the human to the highest of the Pure Abodes and the four formless realms, but not from the four lowest realms.” (Gethin 1998). This means that nirvana is an achievement anyone can reach if they practice Buddhism, and is the only way to end samsara and have ultimate happiness. By here, the strong logic chain of religious theory in Buddhism was formed, and it provides the people the incentive to practice Buddhism.

       To sum up, the idea of heavens and hells was contrasted perfectly with Buddhist cosmology. The cosmology was firstly created by the words of Buddha, where the importance of nirvana was mentioned, the world view was constructed, and the way to nirvana was introduced. With generations upon generations of studying and developing Buddhism, the  cosmology became more and more self-consistent, making the theories of Buddhism more and more persuasive. The relationship between samsara, karma and nirvana is very clear, and it builds a strong theoretical background to give people a reason to believe in and practice Buddhism. The exquisite cosmology allows Buddhism to survive in competition with other religions and flourish in the world.

Work Cited

Bodiford, William M. 2019.10.15. Classroom Lecture. Asian m60w, “Introduction to Buddhism.” University of California, Los Angeles.
Gethin, Rupert. 1998. The Foundations of Buddhism. New York: Oxford University Press.

2019 Article: A Hard Transformation toward Inclusive System: China

Deng Xiaoping is one of the greatest reformers in Chinese History. With more than two decades of planned economy and some mistakes in the political and economic policy, the economy of China nearly collapsed. In 1977, Deng decided to reform the economic system of China. From then on, the GDP and HDI of China skyrocketed for almost 40 years. Within this process, we gladly say that the system of China’s economy is moving towards inclusive, but there are some obstacles in this way and a lot of reasons shaped China’s system today. I want to express these from three aspects: good signs, bad signs, and comparison toward other countries.

Firstly, that’s talk about the better part. For the last 40 years, China made a lot of effort in transforming its political and economic system. For economic part, the idea of private property was introduced to China to replace communism, and the guarantee of private property is more and more reliable. The reform actually started with the reform in the countryside, where the peasants got their own land. The property right for city residents was also making progress. For example, the government can easily take residents’ land or houses with little compensation back to the 1990s, and the protest often ended up with casualty.  Now, the standard of compensation has been lifted up to a price higher than the market price, and no action will be performed unless officials have the consent of the owner of the property. The monopoly of the government industries was weakened: the department of oil, electricity, rail and postal service was abolished and replaced with several corporations. The stock of those corporations can be traded in the stock market, and there is some competition between those companies. Generally speaking, with the development of private economy and the open of different fields of economy towards western countries, China’s economic system made huge progress in the last 40 years, mainly in the protection of private property and the contracts. In the political system, there are also some improvements. Firstly, the government’s right was limited, and for the first time, people have the right to know about the government decision and express their own ideas. For example, in 2015, by protesting and strong opposing toward government, the citizen of Xiamen forced the government to change the location of a chemistry factory. The independent anti-corruption has a positive impact on the bureaucracy system. Compared to the economic system, the political system did change, but it is far from enough.

There are always problems with reform. The impact of the pre-socialism country is still inflecting China now. In fact, there are still a lot of relics of the extractive system in China now. Economically, the domination of government-funded corporations is still unshakeable. Almost all financial institution is public banks, and key industries, including transportation, mining, insurance, real estate, energy, and tobacco, are all controlled or partly controlled by the government. Also, in the developing area, the contract, especially those with governments, are not well protected. The competition system is still not reformed. Also, the most serious problem is that some of these public corporations still serve those upper classes with privilege, maybe political or economical, acting as their tool to extract people. Some of the officials gained millions of dollars from the public he was supposed to be responsible for, and all those people can only accept the fact. The development of private corporations is still managed by the government, and the restrictions sometimes prevent innovation from happening. Also, the transformation of the political system not very smooth. After the Tiananmen Protest in 1989, the CCP slowed down its political system reform, focusing on the economy. Until today, China is still an authoritarianism country with limited freedom of speech and democratic election. The whole political system, in its innermost, is still serving the elites. To sum up, we can say that China is in the balance right now.  The momentum of moving forward , by the unstoppable change from extractive economic system to inclusive system because of the wake up of the people, is balanced by the power from an extractive political system controlled by the elites in the government. Gladly we saw that the power of the extractive system is decaying, but it is still extremely powerful. In the process of moving toward an inclusive system, China had a hard time, and the future is still covered by dark. If China can make a smooth transformation towards inclusive political and economic systems, the Chinese economic miracle may continue.

Finally, since there is an axis about the location of China’s system in the world, I would like to explain the reason I put it there. China must have a relatively inclusive economic system to get the second-largest economy in the world, and the highly developed industries proved that. The technology development of China lead by innovation is rapid, and the open field of the Chinese economy is wider. For example, Tesla signed a contract with the Shanghai government to build one of its largest factories in Shanghai. Actually, China’s economic system is ranked pretty high. However, the political system is not that inclusive, which slows down China a lot. Consider both of these aspects, since China is moving toward the inclusive system, we can put China above South America, Africa, most of Asia, and behind the EU, Japan, the US, Canada, and other western counties. I think somewhere between Russia and South Korea will be a suitable place. China, like my hometown, is facing a great challenge right now. It has done a lot, but that’s not enough. In today’s China, the key to moving forward is determined by whether it can move forward to the inclusive system. 

本篇内容写于2019年,是于UCLA研究Development economics中的一点发现。个人习作,不代表任何观点。

2014年摘抄——中枪的我

饱腹而卧,昏聩而起,

不食早餐,先翻手机。

晨练三圈,兴趣倒高,

一无计划,二无备表。

强打精神,恹恹出门。

肚中无书默诵,唯有瞌睡一程。

逢师长则都好都好,逢同侪则心高气傲。

见资料眉开眼笑,收起来转眼忘了。

盲目从众不深究,动辄大呼续一秒。

能言善辩是本领,以貌取人有说道。

不省是省,名牌气质甚高。

能拖则拖,且待心血来潮。

经济心理学,世间万物皆可套。

此文读完了,从今尔等不足较。

嫉贤妒能,刚愎自用,

睚眦必报,宠辱皆惊。

你我皆狗,你是真狗,我系英雄自嘲。

人人独特,穷人独特,富人特别独特。

一日碌碌,悲喜交缚。

好书一本,明日再读。

今日无寸进而坦然大睡,竟无丝毫“愧对父母养育”之心,我都替你们着急。

你道自己是个鹤儿立鸡群,却不晓自己是知识青年病。